A changing of the guard in East Rutherford could have the New York Jets looking a little different when they host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.
New York fired head coach Robert Saleh ahead of this Week 6 matchup while also taking the play-calling duties away from offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett, turning the offense over to assistant Todd Downing.
Downing’s approach could be a boon for the running game, with tonight’s Bills vs. Jets predictions focusing specifically on rookie running back Braelon Allen.
I size up the spread, Over/Under total, and NFL player prop odds for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL picks for the Bills at Jets on Monday, October 14.
Bills vs Jets MNF prediction
My best betBraelon Allen Over 8.5 rushing attempts (+116 at FanDuel)
My analysisBraelon Allen may sit behind fellow running back Breece Hall on the depth chart, but the first-year RB out of Wisconsin has been the more effective runner of the two in 2024. Allen is picking up 4.5 yards per carry (vs. Hall’s 3.0 ypc) and will see more action with Downing holding the play sheet on Monday night.
The promoted passing game coordinator and QB coach is actually better known for his relentless rushing attack (going back to his time as OC in Tennessee), which interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich celebrated this week. New York currently sits 27th in EPA per handoff with a success rate per run of just 37.9% (20th).
“First of all, this team does have a strong run game,” Downing told the media. “We just haven’t seen it come to fruition consistently enough… but I believe our guys are ready to answer the bell and make the quarter-turn adjustments we need to make to get this thing on track.”
The opportunity to do damage on the ground is there Monday night. This Buffalo Bills defense is soft in the middle, missing key components in the run stop. The Bills, who sit 22nd in EPA allowed per handoff and give up an NFL-high 5.2 yards per carry, were bullied by the Ravens’ dedication to the run two weeks ago, allowing 271 yards on the ground.
Allen had a quiet day in the loss to the Vikings in London last weekend, mainly due to the New York Jets falling behind quickly and having to go pass-heavy in an effort to catch up. He carried the ball just five times for 13 yards.
With Hackett calling plays, New York ran the ball at the third-lowest rate in the league through five weeks (35.76%). Downing will bring more balance to the play calling, which gives Allen a higher ceiling than some projections forecast.
The rookie’s player models range from six rushing attempts to 10 carries in Week 6, with my number just shy of nine attempts from Allen on Monday. This prop total did open as low as 7.5 (Over -128), with Over action bumping it up. I still believe there’s value, given the change in Gang Green’s offensive philosophy and the weakness of the Bills defense.
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Bills vs Jets MNF same-game parlay
Brealon Allen 25+ rushing yardsBreece Hall anytime touchdownJets +2.5
+313 at FanDuel
Allen will see an increased workload with Downing at the wheel of the offense and the Bills getting beat up on the ground.
Hall will also see a spike in touches and is always a threat to score on the ground or through the air.
This Jets defense is statistically the best stop unit Buffalo has faced, with the Bills beating up on weaker teams to start the season.
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Bills vs Jets odds
Bills vs Jets live odds
Bills vs Jets opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo -2.5 | New York +2.5
- Moneyline: Buffalo -130 | New York +110
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Bills vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York opened between +2.5 and +3 for this Monday night matchup following its loss in London last Sunday. When the team fired head coach Robert Saleh on Tuesday, the betting market actually moved toward Gang Green, with the field goal spreads drying up and vig on Buffalo -2.5 slimming.
- The Over/Under total opened at 42.5 points and has been bet down to 40.5 O/U as of Sunday.
- Covers Consensus shows 64% of spread picks on Buffalo while 57% of total picks are on the Over.
- This trip to MetLife Stadium is Buffalo’s third straight road game after losses at Baltimore and Houston the past two weeks.
